Navigating Complexity in Sudan’s Conflict Resolution Efforts

17 November 2023

As Sudan grapples with escalating conflict, various international bodies have initiated efforts to bring about peace. The African Union (AU), Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Jeddah’s Declaration of Commitment, and Egypt’s Neighboring Countries Initiative are all striving to address the crisis. While these initiatives offer hope, their simultaneous emergence raises concerns about potential contradictions and the challenges of effective collaboration.

African Union’s High-Level Ad hoc Panel: In response to the deteriorating situation, the AU has set up a High-Level Ad hoc Panel on Sudan, signaling a renewed commitment to finding a solution. This panel, if promptly constituted with credible members, holds the potential to facilitate an inclusive civilian-led political transition. The success of this mechanism will be pivotal in reinstating the AU’s effectiveness in resolving the ongoing conflict.[1]

IGAD’s Rapid Response Plan: Navigating Challenges IGAD swiftly responded to the crisis with a two-stage rapid response plan, emphasizing an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian efforts. However, despite multiple summits and roadmaps, the situation remains dire. The recent meeting of IGAD Quartet’s Foreign Ministers in June underscores the challenges and the necessity for a recalibrated strategy to achieve meaningful progress.[2]

The 41^st Extraordinary Assembly of the IGAD Heads of State and Government, held in Djibouti, addressed the Sudanese crisis under the chairmanship of H.E. Ismail Omar Guelleh. The communique condemned external interventions, urged humanitarian support pledges, and emphasized the impossibility of a military solution. It called for coordinated international efforts, emphasizing a unified Africa-anchored mediation process, and committed to supporting a civilian-led inclusive political transition in Sudan. The IGAD assembly resolved to fast-track an all-inclusive dialogue and establish a mediation framework, seeking endorsement from the AU and UNSC while remaining actively involved in the peace process.[3]

Jeddah’s Declaration of Commitment: A Pledge to Protect Civilians The Saudi-American initiative, represented by the Declaration of Commitment, aims to safeguard civilians and facilitate humanitarian efforts. While both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) express support, past commitments have faltered. Skepticism surrounds the efficacy of these initiatives without concrete actions to follow.[4]

Egypt’s Neighboring Countries Initiative: The recent summit in Cairo, Egypt  involving Sudan’s seven neighboring countries, proposes a comprehensive solution to the conflict. President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi outlined an initiative emphasizing a lasting ceasefire, humanitarian corridors, and an inclusive political dialogue. However, reservations expressed by Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hint at potential discord among participants.[5]

Addressing Contradictions: Strengthening recommendations for action, the simultaneous emergence of these initiatives presents a complex landscape, potentially leading to contradictions and overlapping efforts.

Recommendations

• Mobilizing for Ceasefire: Prioritize efforts to mobilize all stakeholders towards a face-to-face meeting between warring parties to build trust and confidence.
• Effective Monitoring and Ceasefire Enforcement: Establish a ceasefire enforcement and monitoring mechanism, potentially deploying the East Africa Standby Force, to ensure compliance, deter violations, and operationalize humanitarian corridors.
• Preventing Spillover: Mitigating Regional Risks Collaborate with the African Union and the international community to prevent further atrocities and spillover into neighboring regions, particularly in Darfur and Kordofan.
• Inclusive Dialogue: Engaging Civilian Actors Work closely with the AU to engage civilian actors, including political parties, in an all-inclusive Sudanese-led dialogue to address the fragmented political landscape.
• Diplomatic Unity: Coordinated Efforts for Real Peace Assemble different diplomatic tracks under the IGAD Quartet, the AU, and the expanded core group to coordinate and demonstrate unity in delivering a genuine peace deal for the people of Sudan.

In conclusion, the multifaceted approach to Sudan’s conflict necessitates careful coordination and the reinforcement of recommendations. The international community must learn from past shortcomings, acknowledge potential contradictions, and work collaboratively to usher in sustainable and inclusive peace for the people of Sudan.

[1] Amani Africa, Ministerial session on the situation in Sudan, 14^th November 2023 https://amaniafrica-et.org/ministerial-session-on-the-situation-in-sudan/

[2] IGAD, Official Statement Workneh Gebeyehu, IGAD Executive Secretary Heads of State and Government Meeting of the IGAD Quartet Group of Countries on Peace and Stability in the Republic of Sudan Monday 10th June 2023  https://igad.int/official-statement-workneh-gebeyehu-igad-executive-secretary-heads-of-state-and-government-meeting-of-the-igad-quartet-group-of-countries-on-peace-and-stability-in-the-republic-of-sudan-monday-10th-j/

[3] IGAD, Communiqué of the 41st Extraordinary IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government, 9^th December 2023 https://igad.int/communique-of-the-41st-extraordinary-assembly-of-igad-heads-of-state-and-government-djibouti-republic-of-djibouti-9th-december-2023/

[4] U.S Department of State , Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan, May 11, 2023 https://www.state.gov/jeddah-declaration-of-commitment-to-protect-the-civilians-of-sudan/

[5] Sudan’s generals agree to meet in effort to end their devastating war, a regional bloc says, December 11^th 2023, https://amaniafrica-et.org/ministerial-session-on-the-situation-in-sudan/